The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of
the most traded Asian currencies in the financial markets. And its pair with
the US Dollar – USDJPY, forms one of the four major currency pairs, which are
some of the most traded currency pairs in Forex.
Since December 2016, the USDJPY
has been on a bearish trend implying the Japanese Yen has been bullish. And
that trend played well into the current economic crisis around the world due to
the COVID-19 pandemic.
The US dollar has had the hardest
blow following the effect of the pandemic in the US, which has greatly affected
businesses there.
On August 27, 2020, U.S. Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, unveiled Fed’s tactic to the current inflation.
However, the speech hinted that the current low rates will continue for a longer
period. Following Powell’s speech, the USD index used to track US Dollar
greenback against other currencies registered a drop of about 0.09%.
As the strength of the US Dollar
continues to drop, the Japanese Yen, on the other hand, seems to be gaining
ground.
Shinzo Abe’s Resignation
Following the announcement that
the current Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, will be stepping down, there
was scepticism of how the Japanese Yen will behave in the market with some
fearing that there could be a shift in policy in Japan.
However, since the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party in Japan still holds power, experts do not see a significant
shift in Policy. The party is to elect its leader on September 14, 2020.
The biggest threat to Japan’s
policy continuity
Shigeru Ishiba, who is the former
Japanese Defense minister is seen as the biggest threat to the Japanese policy
community. If elected, there could be ramifying policy changes, which would
affect the Japanese Yen standing in the international market.
Ishiba currently seems to command
a huge following in the public opinion though he lacks the Liberal Democratic
Party’s support.
Best bet according to analysts
Yoshihide Suga who was the chief
cabinet secretary under Shinzo Abe announced that we will be running for the
prime minister’s post two days after Abe’s announcement that he would be
resigning.
Suga has good support of the
Liberal Democratic Party and is expected to continue with Abe’s policies if
elected to become the next prime minister.
One of the main things that
analysts look forward to is the fiscal and monetary stimulus programs that were
rolled out during Abe’s tenure. It would be advantageous to the Japanese Yen if
the next prime minister expanded these stimulus programs.
USDJPY – what to expect towards
and after the Japan PM elections
At the moment, the USDJPY is
expected to continue with its bearish trend mainly due to the weakening of the
US Dollar and the Fed’s accommodative shift in how he Central bank responds to
the inflation that was outlined in their recent report made through Powell’s
speech.
If Suga wins to become the next
Japanese prime minister in September, we could see a more determined JPY;
meaning a stronger bearish trend for the USDJPY.
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